Torn Flags, Torn Hearts and Bodies
Maybe you have noticed the Ukrainian flags outside
In Europe there are quite a few hanging at institutions, schools, but also near houses. But upon closer examination they are often torn, broken into many pieces and scattered in the wind. These flags clearly weren't meant for continuous exposure to the weather and/or were cheaply produced in e.g. China. Yet people don't really take them down and replace them. At least I have seen quite a few over the last months that would suggest this. Instead what remains is highly symbolic for the Ukrainian state and its people as it so clearly shows how their hearts and bodies are now torn into pieces after almost 2 years of war.
I don't want to make this into a political post. But I do want to make this statement: the lives of people seem to be worth almost nothing. Perhaps this is a universal statement for all of human history. Have lives ever been worth something? Countless millions and billions (?) of lives have been lost throughout history through war. I always thought that we had had become a bit less barbaric, especially after the 2nd World War. But looking at today's conflicts that does not really seem to be the case.
Already around half a million (!) lives have been lost in this war. It's such a big number that we cannot really comprehend it. Imagine a major city just wiped away... I can't. But so little seem to care. Especially the politicians that are screaming for more weapons and lives to get sacrificed in this madness. What happened to diplomacy? What happened to peace? Why are the people calling for such looked at as if they were cold and heartless? I feel much is turned on its head these days. Perhaps we really do already live in what Orwell coined "doublespeak". Right is wrong and lies are truths.
When the means to an end become justified, human lives are worth little more than the pebbles on a beach. To uphold a state is to justify the slaughter of hundreds of thousands and millions. Who gives these orders? Who brings these thoughts into this world? Surely not the men, women and children that are directly effected by war. It's the people in illusory power. Just like the Kings of the past have given these orders, governments command them and corporations empower them by producing the weapons of war.
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The exclusive elites want war and depopulation so their stooges and slaves in disguise as politicians will do their biddings. They don’t respect ‘life’ so they are bent on the road of destruction. More people need to wake up and stop going along with their bloody games.
The cabal? Are you aware that "the Cabal" is a anti-semitic dog whistle term? If your intention is not to say that a conspiracy of a powerful Jewish clique is behind "everything", I suggest you use a different term.
Half a million dead?! That is shocking!
The conflict in The Ukraine has been nothing but a money-making and money-laundering false flag for the west. I wish we would mind our own business. Far fewer people would be dead now, but human lives mean nothing to these bastards, nothing. That they are defending the people of the Ukraine is a lie. I am so ashamed of my government, which continues to push the false narrative that we are defending Democracy and the people there. NATO is a criminal organization, a front for the international war machine.
I heard this was an estimation for both sides. It's heartbreaking to see so many people just not questioning the narrative or don't even want to give peace a chance because of "principles"
We love war. A great many of us work for the war machine, many of us without even knowing it, so jobs would be lost if war were to end, and stocks would plummet if those businesses were to go under for lack of murderous impulses. It's absurd, like much of what we believe, do and say these days.
"The state will treat you like a milk cow... until it treats you like a beef cow."
Yeah I think the western world has crossed from being milk cows to beef cows and we're just waking up to that reality. (sharp rise in death rates due to vaccines).
The Ukraine operation was a tragedy. The military industrial complex and the politicians who promoted the war are making billions of dollars on the deaths of Ukraine men, and many Russian men too.
I think that the 500,000 death toll for Ukraine soldiers is quite possible. It's disgusting how populations can be so easily fooled to support the narratives on the propaganda channels.
It's the weak minded who willingly march to war under flags. RIP
Couldn't have said it better
The above comment you're commenting on is, frankly speaking, an idiotic take. The total bullshit like the comment you're replying is an attempt at trying to divert attention from the fact that Russia is the aggressor in Russia's war on Ukraine.
When there is an enemy at the gates trying to invade your home and kill and rape your women and children you fight. Period. You do that regardless of the risk of death you take. If the Ukrainians stop defending against the Russians, the horrors that are taking place in the occupied regions will come to the rest of the country. Afterwards, the Russians will destroy everything that is left of their culture and identity and ultimately make the country and its people a weapon against other countries. This is precisely how Russia has always operated. It invades, conquers, Russifies and turns its conquered peoples into cannon fodder and their lands into resources.
By the way, Ukrainian military casualties are almost certainly less than Russian because the Russians have always placed zero value on the lives of their soldiers and because their organizational culture, including military, is so rife with incompetence, negligence and corruption. They've been used in meat wave attacks particularly near Bakhmut last winter. In particular, the men conscripted by the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics have been used in an extremely wasteful manner. Also, in the spring of 2022 the Russians suffered very large casualties owing to their flawed strategy that rested on the assumption that Ukrainians wouldn't resist. That's why they were stuck in very long mechanized columns ambushed from all sides.
That said, the Ukrainian military casualties are considerable, too. However, the Ukrainians seem to want to continue their counteroffensive because they know that the long-term viability of Ukraine requires that the sea lanes in northwestern Black Sea remain safe. Letting Russia keep the areas still under its control in Ukraine would mean that Putin benefited from his invasion. The best possible outcome for Ukraine and all of Europe would be degrading the Russian military and its economy further.
You are absolutely right that Russia is the aggressor. No doubt about it. But we have to see the bigger picture here; the assault on Ukraine seems to have been provoked by the ongoing NATO expansion. There is objectively no doubt that NATO has expanded eastwards against the deals made with Russia in the 90s. Is that the actual reason for Putin's motivations? Who knows, but it certainly makes sense that they would not want to allow Ukraine to become part of that alliance and station rockets and nukes (?) there. Does that justify the war? No! But the "west" is not even interested in diplomacy; all attempts have been thwarted. That is what I am criticizing in this post. There is no will for peace on (both?) sides. It's clear that the strategy of sanctioning Russia has not only failed but backfired. NATO is not weakening Russia with this; it is now only costing lives by the hundreds of thousands(!). It is staggering that we are justifying so many people's lives for ulterior motives.
What ongoing NATO expansion? The last time before any country joined NATO before Russia's large scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was Macedonia 2020 (hardly relevant), Montenegro 2017 (another non-event) and Croatia and Albania 2009 (nowhere near Russia's borders). All four are militarily weak countries not in strategically important locations. The last significant round of countries to join NATO were Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia and Slovakia as well as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in 2004. That was 18 years prior to Russia's large scale invasion of Ukraine.
The potential memberships of both Georgia and, most importantly, Ukraine were on hold indefinitely as they were opposed by France and Germany in 2008.
Objectively? There are literally no treaties signed to that effect. And even verbal promises given or hinted at that are highly doubtful. Russian propagandists do like to repeat that point. But as anything uttered by Russia, it needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
Russia sees itself as a great power, which are the only sovereign entities in the world according to Russian thinking. Imperialism is at the core of the Russian national idea. In the view of Russia's leaders, Russia's post-Cold War weakness had come to an end its military and economy had been rebuilt to enable it to take control of Eastern Europe again.
Putin has violated practically all of its agreements regarding Ukraine. It sees Ukraine as a territory. The Russians don't even recognize Ukraine as nation. The only reason Putin wants a ceasefire now is that Russia has no offensive capability left for now. It wants to solidify its control of the Ukrainian territories it currently holds until it has rebuilt its armed forces. No doubt it would also want the sanctions lifted in exchange for the cessation of hostilities.
That's false information. Why do you think publicly supporting the sanctions is illegal in Russia if they are doing no harm? Russia's income from fossil fuels (gas, crude oil and distillates) sales have dramatically decreased as a result of the sanctions. The price cap on Russian oil has permanently widened the price difference between Brent and Urals crude oil from $3 per barrel to $15. The cessation of gas purchases from Europe has left Russian gas largely stranded as Europe has successfully replaced Russian gas with LNG from various suppliers. The rouble has gone from $0.018 to $0.01 in the last year.
There are diesel fuel shortages in Southern Russia thanks to the massive demand from the military and because Russian refiners prefer to export their diesel oil and gasoline due to the weakness of the rouble. The government will step in but if that happens, they're probably going to scale down operations and find "technical" reasons to do so.
Russian military industry is incapable of exporting nearly as much as it did before the large scale invasion of Ukraine because it needs everything in Ukraine.
The Russian government is currently running a deficit and because it has no access to the international capital markets it will have to cover the shortfall from the national welfare fund. When it runs out, there will be very high inflation in Russia.
To bolster the rouble when it hit $0.01 the Russian central bank hiked key interest rate from 8.5% to 12% after an emergency meeting in August. That helped for a while until last month when the key interest rate was raised to 13%. Now, high interest rates are poison to the economy as they make borrowing very expensive.
The justification for the defense of Ukraine is really simple. The Ukrainian people want for their country to continue to exist and to be able to live a life worth living as life under Russian occupation is hellish.
Russia is absolutely getting weakened economically, militarily and politically because of its invasion of Ukraine. Russia has been running through its vast Cold War stockpiles at a high rate. It's has lost thousands of officers and thousands of tanks, even greater numbers of other armored vehicles, thousands of artillery pieces and thousands of tactical trucks as well as other equipment. Russia's cruise missile stockpiles have been severely reduced. Russia's Black Sea fleet has lost 10% of all of its ships, including its flag ship the missile cruiser Moskva, and much more if you account for tonnage. Sevastopol is becoming untenable as the main base for the Black Sea fleet. Its air defenses have been severely degraded including the destruction of an S-400 system, making possible to wipe out its headquarters along with its entire staff and commander a few weeks ago.
Russia is losing its sphere of influence in the Caucasus region and Central Asia. CSTO is dead for all practical purposes. Finland joined NATO and Russia could do absolutely nothing about it. Sweden will soon follow. The large scale Ukraine war has been an unmitigated disaster for Russia. It has been an even greater disaster for Ukraine because Ukraine is three times smaller in population and many times more smaller in terms of resources.
The UN resolution to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine was voted against only by Belarus, North Korea, Syria, Eritrea, Mali and Nicaragua.
Human life has never been valued very much in Russia. It's completely understandable Russia's neighbors want to get away from Russia's sphere of influence as soon as they can. Russia is stuck in past centuries when it comes to its power structures.
First, thanks for replying in so much detail. I think from the looks of it we both have different background information (sources) that would explain our divergence of opinions.
I think the map is self explanatory; in the geopolitical sphere it is clear that this can be interpreted as a threat to Russia (since a NATO membership also involves increased military activity/weapons).
That seems to be an incorrect assessment. Here is an archive that shows (with the original documents) how these assurances were given in the 90s.
There are quite a lot of media outlets writing about this topic; while sanctions definitely have hurt Russia's economy (as your pointed out), they have not been enough to stifle the war effort (in that sense I shouldn't have used the word "failed"). If anything, Russia's military has become much stronger than previously (that is also evident by being able to produce more ammunition than NATO):
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/21/the-west-tightening-russian-sanctions-a-sign-of-failure
https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/trying-bankrupt-russia-could-backfire-2023-01-30/
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/6/5/sanctions-on-russia-may-not-be-working-we-now-know-why
Overall I have listened a lot to John Mearsheimer, Colonel Douglas McGregor etc. that have quite a different opinion on the matter and to my knowledge quite accurately predicted the ongoing conflict. Obviously there are a lot of different opinions out there, and I am well aware that there are many that oppose this view. But I have always felt that these voices seem to be motivated by own interests advancing a Russiaphobic narrative overall. I am definitely not pro Russia, just to be clear - just trying to see both sides.
Then why has Russia emptied its garrisons near the borders of Norway, Finland and the Baltics of nearly all combat formations if it fears NATO so much? Russia doesn't like NATO and that is for one reason: it makes it far less capable of bullying Eastern European countries and treating the entire region as its own backyard.
And as I already stated, Ukraine wasn't going to be able to join NATO as that move was blocked by France and Germany. Russia's invasion has revitalized NATO, strengthened its purpose and caused Finland to join it, soon followed by Sweden.
The previous significant round NATO enlargement was 18 YEARS before Russia's large scale invasion of Ukraine.
They have not been sufficient to stop the war effort but they have done a lot to increase the cost of the war for Russia. Russia's long-term prospects are very bleak. I just finished listening to an video by a Russian energy expert currently living in Uzbekistan about how even the oil and gas sectors are in deep trouble without Western technology. Operating Russia's arctic oil and gas fields has depended on Western companies like Halliburton and Schlumberger that have pulled away from Russia.
The Russian military is DEFINITELY NOT stronger than it was before the invasion of Ukraine. The army in particular has lost so much personnel and equipment that it would take Russia 5-10 years to reconstitute and rebuild its capabilities to the same level as before the war if a ceasefire begins now.
Ammunition production is important but it's not the whole story. Ukraine has artillery supremacy. Ukraine is destroying considerably more Russian artillery pieces than vice versa. This is because of the Western tube and rocket artillery systems given to Ukraine. They have longer range, are more precise and have better shoot and scoot capabilities. The Ukrainian artillery has a faster and more accurate kill chain, which involves intelligence and reconnaissance, targeting and fire control. They're capable of inflicting more damage with fewer shells.
Russians have been firing such a massive volume of shells that their tubes are wearing out, which degrades their range and accuracy. Their military industry is currently incapable of outproducing their rate of daily losses in Ukraine.
HIMARS is a much better rocket artillery system than anything the Russians can field (except in range with GMLRS rockets only, ATACMS changes that). It can complete many more fire missions per day than the Russians can with any system of theirs because the rocket pods come with the GMLRS rockets (all GPS guided) already loaded onto them at the factory and because the pods are loaded onto the launcher using a winch where as the Russian systems require that the rockets be manually unloaded from their boxes, the fuses manually attached to them and for the rockets to be loaded manually one by one.
Russian logistics and medevac systems are in poor shape. They're also not rotating their troops in Ukraine for political reasons. Putin doesn't want another big wave of mobilization before the 2024 presidential election. This will have a very negative impact on morale.
Douglas McGregor has been completely wrong about how the Ukrainian military would perform right from the start. He is likely to be on Moscow's payroll. Scott Ritter is a convicted pedophile and thus disgraced and also likely on Moscow's payroll. Mearsheimer correctly predicted that Russia would respond drastically to Ukraine's attempt at joining the West but he's been wrong about Russia's capabilities.
I think we just have different sources of Information. The truth lies probably in between.
The Russians masters of disinformation. It's a classic technique of theirs to push outrageous lies through various channels and have naive Western journalists and other observers who strive for objectivity to consider them at least partially true.
With the Kremlin, the best working hypothesis is always to assume every denial (of something very inconvenient to them) is a confirmation and that every accusation is a confession. The connection between what the Russian and the truth is tenuous at best.
The destruction of the Black Sea fleet headquarters where there staff of the Black Sea fleet was said to be working at the time according to Ukraine led to very bizarre theatrics on the part of the Russians. The commander was shown at a high level meeting via video link where his image was almost still and quite blurry and where he didn't say anything. There was also a strange white cloth that looked like a sheet under his head as if he had been lying on a bed. When people questioned that, the Russians released a recording of him delivering prizes in a ceremony to soldiers in the Black Sea fleet. What was not mentioned was that this prize giving ceremony was held PRIOR to the bombing of the headquarters. Then then Russians started to discredit the commander with the apparent purpose to remove him without fanfares, which would be convenient if he indeed were dead.
That is the sort of contortions you can expect the Russians to resort to to cover up their failings or their crimes. Russia is among the most corrupt countries in the world. It's been that way always. But post-Cold War Russia is probably worse as Stalin's purges and the program to imprison political opponents or even random people by the millions caused the criminal subculture to spill over to mainstream society. When the Soviet Union fell, all government property was transferred through dubious methods into the hands of the oligarch class and from them to the securocratic elite via shakedowns, protection rackets and so on.
Criminality, lying, lack of transparency and coverups are part and parcel of Russian society. I know there are many in crypto who paint Western societies with the same brush. The reality is that every Western pathology afflicts Russia in ways that are MUCH WORSE.
Thus all official Russian or pro-Russian sources should be considered full of shit until proven accurate. The standard of proof should be very high when their claims are considered.
The problem is that this can be said for every news media outlet and every state. Everyone has an agenda these days and we can assume that almost everything we hear or see is not the "truth". Recent technology has only made this worse.
My point was that you can reasonably expect this to be MUCH WORSE on the Russian side. The assumption you are making here is exactly what the Russians would want you to make.
Information warfare is the only arena where Russia is actually stronger than the West. They've perfected it and its victims are numerous.
I recommend Geir Giles' book Russia's War on Everybody: And What it Means for You.
https://www.amazon.com/Russias-War-Everybody-What-Means/dp/1350255084
looks like an interesting read, thanks