Bulls in the Sky
While ETH hit an ATH tonight, I think back to how much I had when it was around 80 and how I sold much, much, much lower. Same with BTC. Much lower. While I have almost zero ETH, I do have a little BTC still - but even if it quadruples from here, I won't be able to retire. I kind of feel like I have given up on getting "rich" from crypto and instead will be happy if I can just make it through life remaining solvent. The economic landscape can change so fast these days, very few are "safe" from the potential volatility.
I took this picture in Estonia.
Do you see the raging bull too?
Volatility. I am no expert on all the situations happening in the world, but I do feel we are in unprecedented waters, at least at the scale of what we are seeing them. There is of course the ongoing shambles that is the geopolitical situation, spearheaded by the mess that is the US government, as well as the increasing risk of conflict in a number of key locations. Then there is the changing climate which regardless of whether it is man-made or natural, is going to put increasing pressure on us through weather changes, farming and water supply. Then there is the march of encroachment from AI and automation which is going to see more jobs lost than created in the coming decade.
Are you sure your job is safe?
Really sure?
There is a person in my extended family who is a fool. They always believe they are right, but history doesn't treat their predictions kindly. The things they have said.
- The internet is a fad (1996)
- Digital cameras will never be good enough to replace film (2002)
- Bitcoin is a scam that will never have value (2017)
- Electric cars will never be mainstream (2018)
As you can see, I should have bet against them on everything they have said. And when it comes to AI, they predicted that it will never be good enough to replace people in the workplace. This was prior to ChatGPT coming out. And while AI doesn't replace the need for people completely yet, it is marching steadily to consume a higher percentage of human work.
Are you really sure your job is safe?
Whether your job is safe or not, many, many jobs will not be safe and will be lost, with most people affected directly unable to get work. But, indirectly, we are all affected when a large number can't get work, whether we are in work or not, because the economy is set up for the majority to be working. All of the healthcare and retirement funds, as well as all the government services that rely on tax are all affected. We haven't created an economic system that survives mass unemployment, and our society will not cope either. Maybe those who can afford to live on a self-sufficient island will be okay.
As long as it has high enough ground and can withstand weather extremes.
Perhaps I am too pessimistic on the future. But I feel that the majority of people are not pessimistic enough. It is like they are building castles in the sky and do not see the reality that it is not going to happen. I might be very wrong on this and hope that I am, but under the current conditions, I don't see a lot of positives for the society as a whole, even if there is strong economic recovery.
In the past, a strong economy meant that the majority of people had enough, but now, that is not the case. A strong economy can be achieved with a few companies doing very well, even if the majority of people are destitute. We should stop equating the state of the economy to the state of society, because they have been decoupled long ago. GDP is meaningless for the community, so we should question it when it is used as a metric for how well "we" are doing.
We are society. Corporations are entities.
Entities that should be working for us, not using us.
I believe that the way the current economy is fashioned, we are all in for a lot of volatility that we are not prepared to receive. As an individual, we can't predict how we are going to be impacted by millions of events that range in size from micro moves to macro shifts at the global scale. We think we will be okay, based on our pasts, but our pasts were a different kind of animal than the future we face.
This volatility is going to come in many forms, but we are increasingly looking at our problems as if they live in a vacuum, which is not the case. There are interdependencies and a wide range of interactions that are going to create a massive shift in everything that is important in our lives, whether it be the education of children, or the treatment of addicts, or the fallout from a large amount of structurally unemployed, or the aging populations, or the failing retirement mechanisms, or the decreasing level of mental health - plus a myriad other issues.
Volatility.
If Bitcoin, Eth, Hive or whatever else coin goes past the moon, past the planets, and reaches the sun, is it enough to keep you safe? Or, is it a bull in the sky that will blow away in the breeze?
Taraz
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For the most of us those are bulls in the sky that may blow at any time...
We can only do what we know doing, struggle to build a mattress and bet on some bulls not evaporating as fast.
Hey mate, how are you? Haven't seen you around here in a while :)
I'm so sorry Taraz, real life has become even more full of stuff than ever: family duties, daily job (summer is the top activity time), studies and Hive commitments (@combination account management) claim almost all my time, so I'm barely able to come, vote and occassionally leave a short comment here or in threads (inleo).
I heard about your health issues and I'm not much aware on them but guess that you're better since your posts have recovered your usual 'tone'. Life hits us unexpectedly and our resilience is oftenly put on test but you're one of those that know how to face such challenges and I'm sure all will be right eventually.
Keep on!
Hopefully you are managing the workload well and aren't getting pressured too much. It is good to be busy though, rather than having nothing to do :)
I sometimes (every now and then) take some time off (20-30 min max) and spend It with my cat family (currently 12) in the garden ... they are so happy wandering about or lying around me, suddenly getting mad and chasing one another, those are my little autonomous islands of freedom and laziness.
I kind of feel the same way. I still like crypto and I believe in what it could accomplish, but I don't think it is going to change my life like I once did. I am starting to realize that just being able to get by might actually be enough. Happiness comes in all forms I guess...
It seems like so many if us are settling for keeping head voce water.
Well there is no permanent thing in this world except Change ☺️ That’s why we cannot be so sure of one thing because there’s a high probability that it can be change. That’s how I see and perceived things :) love the content ☺️
I started investing late, but it's better late than never. I also got into BTC late, but better have some now before it becomes harder and harder to afford!
Speaking of volatility, I was at a cousin's place last night.
I overheard my aunt talk about depositing some cash into banks and get some interest from it. I asked my cousin what it was for... it was for saving up for his 2-year old daughter's future.
I told him why not invest in the stock market instead? (I would have said crypto but I still am not very comfortable nor knowledgeable to talk about it). He said it's too volatile. I did say at least time is on his daughter's side as she's still very young!
Time in the market beats timing the market.
We were playing card games so we weren't really able to discuss that further.
In my mind, at least with volatility, there's greater chances of higher returns.
There are over a million addresses with +1BTC in them. But, how many people actually have over 1 BTC? I suspect it isn't that many. Having some is better than none for sure.
It is hard when predicting what is right to invest into for children. I suspect that the biggest thing to do for them, is teach them how to learn anything and encourage them to have practical skill that are very hard to automate.
I have almost 25 ETH, it is my largest crypto position and I have a little bit of BTC. I don't think that is enough to get rich, but I am hoping it will be worth more if and when crypto is completely mainstream.
Funny thing next week I am closing on a house that is on a geologically stable 83 foot high high bluff. It has giant propane tank, it's own water well and whole house generator that supplies well with power in case of no electricity. Just add solar panels and I will be completely off the grid :)
That is a nice stack of Eth. My largest holding is pretty obvious, isn't it? :D
That sounds like a great location. Solar panels and a 15 foot electrified fence with mobile sentries :)
LOL, the place is on an island, so just blow the bridge and prevent ferries from docking :)
Being hit by luck with one of those is always great. But - the first internet companies mostly went away. Same goes for cameras, being quickly replaced by phones. Bitcoin is not a company, so that's a good thing, yet there are many other blockchain-technologies that will most likely be more successful in the future. And so on.
Retirement is in community. It's important to create community and contribute to it while doing well - creating it by ourselves, in a certain way. There are many "poor" people who are abandoned by political structures, yet somewhat happy. Because they built and maintained relationships within their neighborhood while younger. It's not a guarantee, of course, values degenerate, too. But finding those we could lean on when money went away?
And finding what we could give them? Gardening skills with brain are a big part. Being able to somehow adapt gardening to the new environments by different interconnected mechanisms to save water, keep warm, keep from being burnt, keep the soil rich and such are trades of the future that can be developed now.
And even if a miracle happens and global climate change is suddenly not as urgent anymore - those skills won't go away. Solving one problem leads to being more capable of solving the next.
He saw the internet as a fad - not the internet businesses. He didn't think the internet would last. And digital cameras in phones, are still digital cameras! :D For him, he didn't understand the tech, but saw himself as very technical.
I completely agree. But I also don't think it is possible to create a billion tiny communes at a practical level. It might be possible digitally. I think these days, it would lead to continual micro war.
I do think that pretty much all resources in the world should be put toward improving energy generation, water usage, taking pollution out of the environment and improving human wellbeing at the core.
I'd absolutely vote for that, but the interest is just not there - yet. Recycling and water management will be a big thing in the future, but as well controlled by financials.
I do think that a billion tiny communes can have a big effect, as we experienced them for centuries in villages. There is a lot more potential there than people give credit. And it can be very practical to have them within a state, as that won't go away and values won't miraculously re-appear. But on the basic need level, villages are the go-to for me. Much can be done when people have the right mindset.
Digitally, yes, I'd be in for that, too. I am, commenting here. There is absolutely potential in digital communities. The thing is that digital communities do not have the same abilities to quickly help each other on a material level. Sending a meal via Uber eats to a member who's sick is a nice gesture, yet still anonymous compared to stopping by at the doorstep and checking in, exchanging a few words in person. Digitalizing that is a mistake in my opinion, it further fragments society as we look for like-minded people far away instead of confronting ourselves with the dissent we receive when discussing with our neighbors. That confrontation is needed, accepting the other as such, as different, and learn with that.
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STOPI can see the raging bull. The bull has never been this angry before. The bull, whose anger is unabated, will probably cause chaos by constantly goring. It will hurt someone, but by the end of the movie, it will be hurt too.
One of the biggest differences between a smart person and a stupid person is that they speak with 100% certainty. An intelligent person generally doesn't make a definitive statement and knows that the balance will shift one way or another.
I am definitely not an intelligent person! But I get told off for my "uncertainty" by saying perhaps, maybe, and possibly :D
The world is moving very quickly, and countless unpredictable factors affect us in more ways than we can imagine. Employment, climate change, and everything else that can happen is on its way to happening, but we can't take advantage of it, can we? If we can, then we should.
This is obviously not investment advice, just my opinion, but I believe that it is in the field of cryptocurrencies where we can take advantage if we are attentive, not only because we understand them, but because it is where opportunities for profit arise on a daily basis. As for the price of cryptocurrencies, don't feel bad, something similar happened to me, because I had several units of ETH years ago when it was worth only $400 (or a little more), and I sold them all during a small rise in the price at that time, because I didn't have liquidity.
I think and know that what always affects those of us who don't have much money is the issue of liquidity, and if it weren't for that factor, it would be easier for us to make money. Even so, I plan to keep trying and won't lose hope. As traders and investors, we know that windows of opportunity are always open to the attentive and discerning eye.
I reckon "attention" is the most valuable resource we have, but what are we doing with it? Instead of focusing on what helps us, we tend to put so much of our energy into what distracts us. Not just in crypto, but everything in life.
If Hive goes to 5$, then probably it will land me in a safety zone. Some were saying, we could go to 20$ :)
What do you think though?
Maybe one day, but how devalued does the dollar have to become? :D
I don't think, we are going anywhere near that in few years even. May be 2$ sounds reasonable...
The fast changes we have been experiencing can feel really intense, particularly regarding job security and economic stability.
I bought ETH at $11, at $100, at $240. I sold ETH at $1000, at $800, at $3500, at $3100. I haven't bought ETH since, I was close to buying ETH at $1500 this year, but I overestimated the strength of Trump's tariffs. I was waiting for ETH below $1000.
If I worked and did not spend cryptocurrencies, I would have 200-300k HBD. Unfortunately, this amount is several times less. But I will wait for good prices and a bear market.
I agree that the economy does not reflect the state of society, as there are many countries said to be economically strong while the majority of their people live in hardship.
Perhaps the solution is to be more realistic and to seek self-stability as much as possible.
Many still believe that an actual bull run will happen, along with an alt season. This might end up being the last real bull run, so also the last opportunity to make your 50-100x returns on a larger scale. While BTC itself (likely) won't be the asset allowing for this, it should still be possible to make a lot of money (generational money) from crypto. Who knows?
ahhhhh yes.. coulda, shoulda. I remember going all in (for me anyway) and buying $5k worth of crypto. Then the market just dropped and fell some more with no end in sight.. and so i sold at this low.. then, a year later btc was at an ATH and so were all the crypto i had bought before. If only I had been more patient. Oh well, at least I had the sense to move it all into HBD. :)
😂
I think everyone has different "investing" styles. Some hodl them forever, some buy low and sell high, or a combination of both, and to each its own. The way I see it is volatility provides us opportunities to reap some monetary gains if managed well. :)