Subaru Flu, Herding Cats, and Spectacular Sunsets
The first week of autumn here in our corner of Minnesota was an adventurous one. The sunsets this time of year are gorgeous and we’re experiencing what will probably be our last few weeks of warmer weather. We’re to the point now where, even during the day, there’s a slight chill to the air but the sunshine is still warm.
I took the photo above during one of our walks at dusk last week.
Herding Cats
Progress is being made on the lower level renovation—tile has been laid, carpet padding has been installed and then next week the carpet installers will be done.
This phase should have been done last week but the installer mistakenly laid the carpet with the pattern going in the wrong direction (width-wise instead of length-wise) so it all had to be taken up and redone. To the contractor's credit, they owned up to the mistake and didn't put up a fuss.
Dealing with the contractors/installers and keeping everything on track has proven to be a lot like herding cats. Next will come the hardwood floor installation upstairs during the first and second weeks of October. We're hoping for the best.
Subaru Flu
Our brand new ‘25 Subaru Forester hybrid has been starting very roughly for the past few months and we attributed it to the hybrid engine. This began to get progressively worse over the past few weeks until the entire truck shuddered and shook for about a minute after starting the engine.
Last weekend the truck started exhibiting signs of major problems during a trip to a local apple orchard. On the trip back the entire dashboard lit up like a Christmas tree with check-engine and other warning lights. The infotainment system was also glitching and flickering.
After a little research online we discovered all the things we’re experiencing with the vehicle are pretty common. It seems Subaru paired the Toyota hybrid system with their boxer engine for these vehicles and I would guess a lot of the problems are stemming from the fact the hybrid system wasn’t originally designed to work with that particular motor.
The Forester has been in the shop now for three days and we’ve yet to get an explanation of what the fix will be. Many online have said the dealerships will just clear the codes to reset the warning lights and send the owners on their way. I hope this isn’t the case with us.
This has been a great reminder to never buy the first year of a product any automaker releases to market. I have a feeling we’ll be asking Subaru to buy back this vehicle. It’s been such a disappointment from two brands (Subaru & Toyota) that we’ve had great experiences with in the past and have come to trust.
On the bright side the dealership gave us a Crosstrek Wilderness Edition as a loaner and I’m absolutely loving it. Maybe we’ll ask for an even trade?
Trust But Verify
If you follow any financial or investment accounts on social media at all you’ve probably seen the chart above making its rounds. Historically speaking, it's fairly accurate, which would be an impressive feat if it was actually created in 1875. Future predictions become a bit murkier. Intrigued, I saved the chart to my phone's camera roll to do a little but of sleuthing on my own.
I consulted with Grok on the validity of the chart and this is what it told me:
The chart you provided, titled “Periods When to Make Money,” appears to be a hoax or at least highly speculative. It claims to predict financial cycles, including panics, good times, and hard times, with specific years (e.g., 1927, 1945, 1965, 2019, 2035, 2053) and patterns that repeat every 18-20 years. However, there is no credible historical or economic evidence to support the idea that financial panics or market cycles follow such a precise, predictable schedule over a century or more, especially extending into the future with exact dates like 2035 and 2053.
The document also bears a signature dated “1875” and includes instructions to “save this card and watch it closely,” which adds to its dubious nature, as it suggests a prophetic quality inconsistent with modern financial analysis. Economic cycles, such as recessions or booms, are influenced by a complex mix of factors (e.g., policy, global events, innovation), making long-term predictions like this unreliable.
While some of the historical years (e.g., 1927, 1945) align with known economic events (like the lead-up to the Great Depression or post-WWII recovery), the chart’s rigid periodicity and future predictions lack support from reputable economic models or data. This suggests it may be a fabricated or satirical piece rather than a legitimate financial tool.
This is a very good reminder to verify every shred of investment/financial advice you see online. It seems to me like a whole lot of advisors and influencers online are trying to mislead their followers so they continue to chase higher highs and miss selling towards the top of the cycle when they should. Even something as simple as this chart could prevent you from making the proper decisions when the right time comes. Be wary investors. Be very wary. With Uptober being right around the corner always remember to do your own research before making any important decisions.
All for now. Thanks for reading.
Ha, I admit it took me in for a minute, the chart! But it's the same with most of these "predictions". If something even moderately aligns with the way history actually unfolded, then bam, major sign, super accurate prediction - miss at your peril. I think it's rooted in our need for someone to know. To be told there's a law, that everything's going according to plan, you know?
I reckon we gotta use our instinct mostly. Hope your Subaru feels better soon :D
We humans love to find patterns in things—so much so we see them when they aren't necessarily there. And, you're right, we want to believe so badly that someone knows! If it were that easy there would be so many more millionaires. The market has changed so much since Wall Street has gotten into crypto that I'm afraid they're the real influencers.
Thank you! You certainly don't expect a new car to break down. Thankfully we have a back-up. : )
Was thinking the same thing! ;)
Good afternoon, dear friend @ericvancewalton
How great that you're still enjoying warm, beautiful days during your hike. I loved the shots you were able to take of the plane in flight.
What a hassle it was to redo the carpet. It's great that the contractor admitted their mistake.
I'm sorry about what's happening with the Subaru. I hope the problem is resolved soon.
It's great that they lent you a vehicle so you can get around.
Have a happy and prosperous week.
Thank you Luis! We should be finding out today the extent of the problems with the truck. I hope you have a wonderful week!
I can imagine how calm those evening walks must feel. Renovations can really be a hassle; at least you are staying optimistic about everything.
We had tradies in this month, reputable ones, but we found out you bloody have to watch them like hawks and tell them exactly how you want things. The sparkie put two wall plugs in on same wall as asked but not at same height .. wtf? Did we have to explain that too?? The demo guys scratched deep gouges in the pine floor removing tiles. Dis we have to tell them to be careful of the pine floor? Jaysus. And the plasterer left blobs of plaster on the floor. Dad always hovered when tradies were working - now I see why.
NB. Aussie
TRADIES : TRADESPEOPLE EG CONTRACTORS
SPARKIE: Electrician
Demo: demolition
We're finding this same thing out with almost every contractor we deal with, to a greater or lesser degree. I've already had to patch the drywall where it's been gouged and some of the wood trim has been scratched. I'll be "supervising" more closely from here on out. I like "sparkie"! I'm going to start using that term myself for electricians. : )
That Crosstrek looks like it has a really similar footprint to our Buick Envision. I really like our Buick. Not quite as much as our old Lacrosse, but it is a good vehicle and seems to be quite capable. I have some projects at work that I am managing right now and I know what you mean about it feeling like herding cats working with contractors and vendors.
It's funny how many vehicles across all makes and models have the same general form factor now. The small SUV/crossover seems to be the vehicle of choice in America. It's surprising when you start paying attention in parking lots how similar every new vehicle looks. I really like the Buick brand, especially the newer ones. The communication aspect has been the most difficult for me to manage with the contractors so far. There is lots of room for improvement.
Our neighbor has one of those new three cylinder Buicks that look more like a car than an SUV. It's actually impressive how well equipped you can get them. I think the top end package still puts it right around $30,000. Our brother in law has one of the new Chevy Trax and it was a lot of fun to drive when I had to move it from one city to another for him.
I had no idea they made a three cylinder! Suzuki and GEO had a few 3C's in the 1990's. It makes sense for an SUV that small. I've seen the smaller Buicks and the Trax. Ford makes a similar SUV as well, the Ford is the least attractive of the three for me. The smaller cars are more fun to drive. I'm preferring the CrossTrek over the Forester.
Yeah, it's a three cylinder with turbo. My wife's is a four cylinder with turbo. It's nice to be able to zip around in that compared to my 2500!
There are cycles to the market, but the factors influencing those cycles are myriad, and not nearly so regular as the image suggests. Just assuming periodicity also explains nothing about the underlying fundamentals.
The Subaru issue sounds bad. I've never bought a new car in the first place, so the Friend-Shaped Car already had two decades of shakedown cruising. Now I just have the aging car issues where stuff is plain worn out after 140k miles.
I don't miss the Minnesota winters. Here in the PNW, there is also an autumn chill in the air, but we rarely drop below 0°F, and there is little concern about windchill factors.
For sure. There are a lot more of those factors at play during this particular cycle too.
Yes, as it stands I'm leaning towards pushing for a buy-back from Subaru. We find out today the extent of the problems and what they plan to do to fix them. I've spoken with another mechanic I trust and he said he's seen a lot of issues with new cars across all brands lately.
I wouldn't miss these winters either! I've never enjoyed them but they get harder to deal with every year. We used to escape to Sedona, AZ for a few weeks during the worst of it in Jan/Feb, and that helped, but we haven't been able to do that the past few years. It can feel pretty soul-crushing.
https://x.com/lee19389/status/1972435881098440989
#hive #posh
Oh, I hope the contractors make all the arrangements before December: I know what it means when the holidays arrive and the house is a mess. It's a real headache. As for the vehicle, your advice is worth taking into account: sometimes you need a reasonable amount of time to see how the product performs. I remember my dad once bought a Chrysler that was a beauty, but turned out to be a real problem. Oh, according to the chart, the next year to make money would be 2035? Sending you a hug.
Barring any huge problems everything should be done by the end of November. I'm going to be in Ohio for Thanksgiving but I'm looking forward to celebrating Christmas in our house after it's (mostly) done.
I'm sorry to hear that! My dad loved Chrysler products! They were different in the 60's and 70's than they are today though. I think they've been owned by an Italian company, Stellanis, for a little over a decade. There's nothing worse than buying a newer car that gives you problems. I have a friend who bought a new Mercedes Benz last year that ended up being such a lemon that he had to end up threatening the company with a lawsuit before Mercedes bought it back. It made all kinds of noises (creaks, squeaks), the engine would overheat, and the windshield cracked about four times in the year he owned it. There had to have been a design flaws with that car.
I don't think the future predictions on that chart are correct. The best financial advice I can think of is invest small amounts continuously, decide how much profit you want to make (10%, 20%, etc.), and then sell when you reach those goals. I hope you had a wonderful weekend and wish you a great week ahead Nancy!
Likewise, friend!🫂🌺